It’s been a very chilly end to the week across Southern Middle Tennessee. Highs on Thanksgiving only reached the mid to upper 40s, and today we’re struggling to climb out of the mid 40s — a solid 10–15 degrees below average for late November. Tonight brings yet another widespread hard freeze, with lows dipping well into the 20s. We’ll finally start a small warming trend on Saturday. Highs return to the 50s as southerly winds bring in Gulf moisture and increasing cloud cover through the day.

Two weather systems will impact us over the next few days:
System #1 Saturday night into Sunday morning, and
System #2 Monday night into Tuesday, which has some early-season winter-weather buzz around it. Let’s break them down.

Our much-anticipated storm system moved through early this morning and brought a healthy round of rainfall to Southern Middle Tennessee. Most locations picked up ½ to 1 inch, which matched the forecast nicely. As of the time of this blog post, light to moderate rain is still falling across parts of Franklin and Grundy Counties, so a few spots in our southeast may finish slightly above an inch before everything fully tapers off.

Today’s blog focuses on the quieting weather pattern ahead, what to expect for Thanksgiving, and the return of our next widespread rainmaker.

It’s been dry, breezy, and unseasonably warm across Southern Tennessee this Monday, with highs near 70 degrees. This is well above the average for late November. While we aren’t in record territory today, the warmth won’t last long, as our next widespread rainmaker is already approaching from the west.

Today’s blog will focus entirely on the next 48 hours. If you’re looking for a detailed Thanksgiving forecast (which are looking fantastic, by the way), hang tight — I’ll have that in tomorrow’s blog. Clouds will continue to increase through the afternoon, and I expect light showers to begin overspreading the region near and after sunset. Here’s a look at radar as of the time of this post, showing activity not far to our west in Western Tennessee.

Today’s blog is running just a little behind schedule, but for good reason! I wanted to give time for the afternoon suite of short-range weather models to finish running so we could have the freshest possible data. Now that we have it, here’s what you can expect:

I mentioned this on social media yesterday, but I wanted to share it again here for those who follow the blog but not my other platforms. (And if you aren’t following yet, you can find all my social links right here)!

Our first (and lighter) storm system of the week brought scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder late last night and early this morning. Rainfall totals varied quite a bit across the area, with the heaviest amounts falling along a thin northwest-to-southeast corridor from Santa Fe → Central Marshall County → Southern Bedford County → Lynchburg → Tullahoma → Winchester → Sewanee. Some communities picked up close to an inch, while others, such as Manchester and Bell Buckle, barely saw measurable rainfall. Below is a look at radar-estimated rainfall over the past 24 hours.

A warm front (the same one I mentioned in yesterday’s blog) pushed through the region late last night. Because of this, our actual “overnight low” occurred around 8 PM last night, and temperatures steadily climbed afterward as southerly winds pulled warmer air into the area. For reference, our normal overnight lows occur around sunrise.

As of this afternoon, most of Southern Middle Tennessee is sitting in the low to mid-70s, which is 10 to 15 degrees above average for mid-November. Clouds will increase through the evening ahead of our next weather-maker tonight.

It was a chilly start to the morning across Southern Middle Tennessee, with many communities dipping below freezing once again. Afternoon highs will reach the mid-60s, but today will likely be our last day in the 60s until the weekend. A warm front will lift through the region early Tuesday, shifting our winds out of the south and pulling warmer, more humid air into the area. This will set the stage for multiple rounds of showers and storms through the next 7 days.

Today’s blog breaks down the two main rain chances:

1. Tuesday night

2. Friday

Let’s dive into the details.

Above-average temperatures and mostly sunny skies will continue to dominate the forecast this weekend. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will climb into the low to mid-70s, which is a solid 10–15 degrees above normal for mid-November. A weak cold front will slip through Saturday night, bringing Increasing clouds (mainly overnight) and Gusty winds Saturday and Sunday (25–30 MPH gusts). It’s not a bad idea to secure lightweight outdoor items. before bed tonight. Because this is a very weak front, significant rainfall is not expected. A brief patch of drizzle will be possible.

If you're not in a “learning mood” this afternoon, feel free to stop here — because we’re about to look under the hood of next week’s weather pattern.

We’re sitting in the mid to upper 60s across Southern Middle Tennessee this Thursday — about 5 to 8 degrees above average for this time of year. High pressure is firmly in control of our local weather pattern, and that will continue straight through the weekend. Highs on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday will climb into the 70s, which is 10 to 15 degrees above normal. It’s pretty wild to think we had highs in the 30s on Monday… and now we’re talking about the 70s. Classic Tennessee weather for Fall.

I think today’s blog title pretty much sums up the weather over the next few days… UP AND UP in the temperature department! If you remember yesterday’s blog, I mentioned we had a good shot at breaking records for both record low maximum temperatures on Monday and record low temperatures this morning. Well, that definitely happened — and then some.

As of Monday afternoon, light flurries and snow showers continue to drift across Southern Middle Tennessee. The activity has been very spotty, but most locations have at least seen a few flakes flying at some point today. This trend will continue through sunset before we dry out and clear up for what will be the coldest night so far this fall. A dusting of snow (up to a half inch) will be possible across the higher elevations of Grundy County, but for the rest of us, no accumulation or impacts are expected.

In the latest update from the Storm Prediction Center, the SLIGHT risk (level 2/5) for severe thunderstorms has been expanded, now covering nearly everyone north of the US 64 corridor in our portion of Southern Middle Tennessee. Yesterday, that risk actually shrunk — but confidence is now slowly increasing that we’ll see at least a few thunderstorms develop this afternoon and evening.

It’s been a downright beautiful Thursday across Southern Middle Tennessee, and this pleasant weather should hold through the rest of the afternoon and evening. But don’t get too comfortable — a BIG flip in our weather pattern is on the way over the next 48 to 72 hours. Two cold fronts are set to move through, dropping us straight into our first deep freeze of the season. But before we talk about that cold air, we need to address the chance for showers and storms on Friday… and maybe even a few lingering into Saturday.

The weather will stay pretty quiet over the next 48 hours, with above-average temperatures and mostly sunny skies continuing across Southern Middle Tennessee. Of course, this quiet stretch has to end eventually — and unfortunately, I’m expecting that change to arrive on Friday as a cold front pushes in from the north and west.

If you’ve been following my blog over the last few days, you know I mentioned that the forecast could shift as we got closer to Friday. And that is exactly what’s happening now.

It was a beautiful day yesterday, and that stretch of nice weather is expected to continue! This morning, temperatures dipped into the mid-30s for many spots — but that should be our last morning in the 30s until Sunday night into Monday morning, when our first hard freeze of the season is set to arrive.

Over the next three days, high pressure will remain firmly in control, delivering gorgeous weather with highs in the low 70s and nighttime lows in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees. For reference, this is well above average for early November. Our typical highs this time of year fall between 62 and 64 degrees, with normal lows in the 36 to 40 degree range. It may feel odd since we’ve only had a couple true chilly mornings so far, but yes — we should be seeing lows in the 30s pretty regularly by now.

A quiet stretch of weather is on tap for Southern Middle Tennessee through at least Thursday, thanks to a broad area of high pressure overhead. Temperatures will run above average for this time of year, with highs climbing into the low to mid-70s under plenty of sunshine. Tonight, a little light patchy frost or fog is possible once again, but this still doesn’t look like a freezing setup for our area.

It’s been a pleasant start to Halloween across Southern Middle Tennessee. This morning brought widespread lows in the mid to upper 30s, along with pockets of patchy ground fog and frost. We’re still waiting on our first official freeze of the season, and it looks like we’ll need to head a bit deeper into November before that becomes a real possibility. Regardless, it was a chilly start to the day — and more of that cool weather is expected this evening for trick-or-treaters.

Our wet pattern that has dominated the week is finally beginning to wind down today. While a few isolated pockets of drizzle lingered early this morning, any remaining precipitation has since tapered off, leaving us under mostly cloudy skies. In total, most of Southern Middle Tennessee picked up between 1 and 2.5 inches of rainfall over the past several days. You can view the observed radar rainfall totals from the last seven days here.