It's the middle of October, temperatures are approaching 90 degrees across portions of Southern Middle Tennessee, and we're still talking about the possibility of breaking daily record highs. Not exactly the kind of weather that makes you want to dig out the winter coat, is it? However, if there's one thing we've learned about October weather around here, it's that conditions can change in a hurry. After several afternoons of summerlike warmth, a strong cold front is expected to move through our region Friday, bringing a much cooler air mass just in time for the weekend.

If you've lived in Southern Middle Tennessee for any length of time, you probably know that October has a bit of an identity crisis when it comes to the weather. One afternoon, you're wearing shorts, running the air conditioning and wondering whether summer ever actually ended. A few days later, you're digging through the closet looking for a jacket, turning on the heat and wondering how temperatures managed to drop so dramatically in such a short period. And wouldn't you know it, we're about to experience a pretty good example of that exact situation this week!

Well, folks, we've made it to Friday, and after spending much of the week watching Hurricane Isaias develop and strengthen in the Gulf, we're finally approaching the point where its impacts will begin reaching Southern Middle Tennessee. Unfortunately, if you've got outdoor plans this weekend, especially on Saturday, Mother Nature isn't exactly cooperating. We're expecting widespread tropical rainfall, strong wind gusts and the possibility of a few brief tornadoes as the remnants of Isaias move northward through our region.

Well, here we are again. Another Thursday, another Drought Monitor update, and unfortunately, another step in the wrong direction for portions of Southern Middle Tennessee. Despite the beneficial rainfall we received last weekend, the latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows Extreme Drought (D3) expanding across portions of the upper Duck River Basin, while Severe Drought (D2) continues to cover a substantial portion of our region. After an exceptionally hot and dry September, our drought situation remains serious, and a single weekend of rainfall simply wasn't enough to undo the damage.

Things are getting considerably more interesting in the Gulf. Tropical Storm Isaias continues to organize Wednesday afternoon, and the National Hurricane Center expects it to strengthen significantly as it moves across the Gulf over the next couple of days. As of the 10 AM update, Isaias had maximum sustained winds of 45 MPH and was moving east-northeast at around 8 MPH. Hurricane Hunters have also found that the circulation is becoming better organized, and the storm is expected to gradually turn northward and accelerate toward the northern Gulf Coast.

Whenever we're tracking something tropical in the Gulf, one question inevitably becomes more important than almost everything else: Where is it going? It sounds like a simple question. If we know where a tropical system is located and which direction it's moving right now, shouldn't we be able to draw a line forward and figure out where it'll go next? Not exactly.

It's officially that time of year. October has arrived, temperatures are finally beginning to feel a little more like fall, and social media is filling up with colorful maps supposedly showing how much snow we're going to receive this winter. Somebody paints Tennessee blue, adds a few snowflakes, mentions El Niño, and suddenly half the South is preparing for a winter apocalypse three months before the first flakes have even had a chance to fall. So, I think we need to have a little chat about winter forecasts.

After weeks of talking about drought, brown grass and rain that always seemed to find somewhere ELSE to fall, we've finally reached a weekend where widespread rain is actually in the forecast across Southern Middle Tennessee. But there have been some pretty important changes over the past 24 to 48 hours.

Earlier forecasts supported the potential for a more substantial soaking rainfall across much of the region. While we are STILL expecting beneficial rain this weekend, confidence in those higher rainfall totals has decreased. The system moving toward us is weakening, atmospheric moisture isn't quite as impressive as earlier forecasts suggested in some areas, and the latest guidance has generally backed away from widespread multi-inch totals.

Well, the newest Drought Monitor is out this morning, and unfortunately, we have taken another pretty significant step in the WRONG direction. Severe Drought has now expanded across much of Southern Middle Tennessee.

After weeks of staring at brown grass, dusty ground and an increasingly ugly Drought Monitor, we're finally getting closer to something Southern Middle Tennessee desperately needs: RAIN. Rain chances will begin increasing Friday and remain elevated into the weekend, with current forecasts supporting the potential for a widespread soaking rainfall across much of the area. Some guidance suggests 0.5 to 2 inches could fall across portions of the region from Friday through Monday, although, as we discussed in Monday's blog, exact rainfall totals can and WILL continue changing as we get closer.

If you've spent any amount of time on social media lately, you've probably seen the phrase “SUPER EL NIÑO” thrown around. And if you haven't yet, just give it time… “SUPER EL NIÑO COMING!” “HISTORIC SUPER EL NIÑO!” “SUPER EL NIÑO COULD BRING A WILD WINTER!” It's exactly the kind of phrase that looks fantastic in giant capital letters on a Facebook graphic or YouTube thumbnail. There's just one little problem: “Super El Niño” isn't an official NOAA classification.

If you've looked at some of the rainfall forecast maps floating around over the past couple of days, you've probably noticed something we haven't seen around here in quite a while: A LOT of rain. Some guidance has been painting several inches of rainfall across portions of Southern Middle Tennessee this weekend into early next week. Considering how quickly our drought has worsened, with Extreme Drought now affecting part of Bedford County, those maps are certainly enough to get your attention. But here's where I have to be the boring meteorologist and pump the brakes just a little bit.

I don't know about y'all, but after the weather we've endured for most of September, this weekend's forecast almost feels suspicious. No Heat Advisory. No Heat Index values near 110°. No widespread thunderstorms. No severe-weather risk. Just sunshine, low humidity, cool mornings, and afternoon temperatures around 80°. FINALLY!

Well, I wish I had better news in the rain department. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor was released this morning, and drought conditions have taken another significant step in the wrong direction across Tennessee. Here in Southern Middle Tennessee, the biggest change is in Bedford County, where a portion of the county has now been upgraded to D3 Extreme Drought. According to the National Weather Service in Nashville, Bedford County is currently the only Middle Tennessee county containing D3 conditions, while D2 Severe Drought also remains in portions of Bedford, Wayne and southern Perry Counties. Most of Middle Tennessee is now classified in D1 Moderate Drought, and nearly the entire region is at least Abnormally Dry.

After spending what felt like approximately 47 years talking about heat, I finally get to talk about something completely different: cool nights! Our long-awaited cooler air has arrived across Southern Middle Tennessee, and we're heading toward a fantastic stretch of weather later this week and into the weekend. Afternoon temperatures will generally settle into the lower to middle 80s, humidity will be MUCH lower, and nighttime temperatures could eventually tumble into the low to mid 50s. That's almost light-jacket territory!

HAPPY FALL, Y'ALL! 🍂 Well... almost. Even though September 22 is the first day of astronomical fall this year, fall doesn't technically begin until 7:05 PM CDT tonight, when the autumnal equinox occurs. And for once, Mother Nature appears to have looked at the calendar.

If you've looked at a weather map before, you've probably seen one: a blue line covered in little blue triangles marching across the country. That's a cold front, and considering the one moving through Southern Middle Tennessee over the next couple of days is FINALLY going to knock us out of the 90s, I imagine that blue line has quite a few fans right now…

Well, I’m running out of creative ways to say it’s going to be dang HOT! Unfortunately, summer has absolutely no interest in leaving Southern Middle Tennessee quietly. Another scorcher is underway today, dangerous heat will continue through the weekend, and some locations could once again flirt with 100° for the actual air temperature. There are a couple of changes worth watching, though. Scattered thunderstorms become a little more possible Saturday afternoon and evening, and while widespread severe weather isn't expected, a few storms could produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts. Sunday turns somewhat quieter again, but the heat hangs on.

If you’ve looked across your yard lately and noticed that familiar golden-brown glow taking over the grass, you’re definitely not alone. Our increasingly hot and dry stretch continues to take a toll across Southern Middle Tennessee, and this week’s newest U.S. Drought Monitor shows another noticeable deterioration in conditions.

You've probably seen this happen countless times. You wake up on a humid summer morning, check your weather app, and see the relative humidity sitting at 90 or even 100%. By the middle of the afternoon, it's blazing hot outside, you're sweating the second you walk out the door, and yet the relative humidity has somehow fallen to 40 or 50%. So... where did all that moisture go?