WEATHER BLOG
Presented By:
From Rain to Flurries… Then a True January Cold Blast Arrives
Southern Middle Tennessee’s midweek pattern change is now underway. After several days of tracking an approaching cold front and a possible rain-to-snow transition, today marks the execution phase of that forecast. Light rain is moving through the region this afternoon, colder air is closing in from the northwest, and by this evening we’ll begin the handoff from moisture to cold. Flurries will fly for many, but accumulating snow should remain confined to the Cumberland Plateau.
Midweek Rain, Brief Snow Chances, Then a Dip Toward Winter
Southern Middle Tennessee is entering a noticeably more active and colder weather pattern as we move through the middle of the week. After today’s mild conditions, rain returns Wednesday — followed by a sharp surge of cold air that may briefly flip rain to snow Wednesday evening, especially across the Cumberland Plateau.
This will not be a major winter storm for anyone in our area. However, light snow accumulations are becoming increasingly likely on the Plateau, and a prolonged stretch of colder-than-normal January weather will settle in behind this system.
Gradual Warm-Up, With a Brief Shot at Rain Midweek
Southern Middle Tennessee is coming out of a cold start to the week, but the quiet weather won’t last much longer. After a couple of dry days and a modest warm-up, our next system arrives Wednesday bringing rain — followed by a sharp temperature drop that may briefly flip rain to flurries Wednesday night into early Thursday, especially toward the Cumberland Plateau. This will not be a major winter storm for our area. At this time, any snow looks light, limited, and elevation-dependent. However, it does mark the beginning of a colder, more January-like pattern heading into the second half of the week.
Flooding Remains the Main Concern as Rounds of Rain Continue
It was a rainy morning across Southern Middle Tennessee! While the severe weather threat has trended lower over the past 24 hours, the isolated flooding threat remains. Multiple rounds of rain are expected to continue through tonight and into Saturday, and while forecast totals have come down some, enough rain has already fallen (and more is still to come) to support localized flooding concerns.
Active Weather Over the Next 48 Hours
Southern Middle Tennessee is entering its most active stretch of weather so far in 2026. After an unusually warm and mostly quiet start to January, multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected from late tonight through Friday night. This does not appear to be a major, high-end flooding or severe weather outbreak for our area. However, it will bring meaningful impacts — particularly the potential for localized flooding and a low-end severe storm risk.
Friday’s Storm System Coming Into Focus: Newest Details Here
Southern Middle Tennessee remains in the middle of a very un-January-like stretch of weather, with spring-like warmth firmly in place and near-record temperatures likely again tomorrow. While conditions today are calm and comfortable, the larger weather pattern across the central United States is becoming increasingly active. Multiple national forecast centers are now highlighting our region for heavy rainfall and a low-end severe thunderstorm risk on Friday.
Heavy Rainfall Threat Increasing for Friday
Southern Middle Tennessee remains locked in an unusually warm and humid pattern for early January, but the quiet stretch of weather we’ve enjoyed is beginning to give way to a much more active setup. While today and Wednesday remain relatively calm, confidence is increasing that a widespread, heavy rainfall event will impact the region late Thursday night through Friday night, with a growing potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding.
Unseasonable Warmth Settles In as Eyes Turn to Active Weather Late Week
Southern Middle Tennessee is entering a stretch of weather that feels far more like early spring than early January. This has been a familiar pattern over the past several weeks, with limited cold air and repeated surges of warmth dominating the region. As of this afternoon, a broad warm pattern is firmly in place, bringing above-normal temperatures, generally quiet conditions, and only limited rain chances through midweek.
While the short-term forecast remains calm and comfortable, attention is beginning to shift toward a more dynamic system expected late this week. That system could bring widespread rainfall and a low-end severe weather threat by Friday.
Rain Returns Tonight as 2026 Finds Its Rhythm
Southern Middle Tennessee is wrapping up the first couple days of 2026 on a calm and fairly mild note, but changes are already lining up just ahead. After a quiet and comfortable afternoon, rain will begin moving back into the region later today and tonight as our next weather system approaches from the west. This isn’t a high-impact setup, but it does mark a shift away from the dry stretch we’ve enjoyed and toward a more active pattern as we head into the weekend.
A Mild Start to 2026 with Rain on the Horizon
Southern Middle Tennessee is kicking off 2026 with calm, mild, and surprisingly pleasant weather for early January. After a chilly start to the week, temperatures have rebounded nicely today, and conditions remain quiet as we move through New Year’s Day. This is not an active weather pattern at the moment, but changes are on the way as we head into tomorrow. For now, enjoy the calm start to the new year with warmer air firmly in place.
Calm Now, Warmer Ahead: A Quiet New Year’s Eve Across Southern Middle Tennessee
Southern Middle Tennessee is closing out 2025 on a calm and noticeably milder note. After the colder air earlier this week, temperatures are rebounding today as the overall weather pattern settles into something much quieter. For New Year’s Eve, conditions are cooperative, calm, and seasonably mild — a welcome break after the recent cold snap.
Gradual Warm-Up Ahead With Rain Returning Late Week
Southern Middle Tennessee is getting a true reminder of winter this afternoon as cold air remains firmly in place behind Sunday’s cold front. While sunshine has returned, temperatures are struggling to climb out of the 30s, and a steady northwest breeze is keeping the chill locked in.
Cold and Breezy Now, Milder Days Ahead for the New Year
Southern Middle Tennessee is getting a sharp reminder that winter still has some bite left, at least for the next couple of days. A strong cold front pushed through overnight, bringing gusty winds and a noticeable drop in temperatures. While conditions are calmer this afternoon, the cold is here to stay through midweek before a gradual warmup takes over as we head toward the New Year.
Warm and Cloudy Now — A Holiday Warmth Peak Before a Sharp Pattern Flip
It doesn’t feel very Christmas-like outside today, and that’s no accident. Southern Middle Tennessee remains locked in a warm, moist pattern as southerly winds continue to feed mild air into the region. Temperatures are running well above average, cloud cover has been stubborn, and occasional light showers are drifting through the area.
While it may feel stormy outside, this is not a hazardous setup. Instead, this forecast is about timing and perspective — enjoying an unusually warm holiday stretch while keeping an eye on a much colder pattern waiting just beyond it.
Slim Rain Chances Early This Week; Warm and Dry Christmas
It’s a noticeably milder start to the week across Southern Middle Tennessee. Southerly winds have done their job, pushing temperatures back into the mid to upper 50s this morning after yesterday’s sharp cool-down. Dew points are still playing catch-up after crashing into the single digits over the weekend, which is one reason the air feels dry despite the cloud cover hanging around.
Overall, we’re entering a quieter stretch of weather, with above-average temperatures becoming the main story, especially as we head toward Christmas.
Storm Reports from Thursday & A Look Ahead Toward Christmas
Thursday’s cold front definitely packed a punch across Southern Middle Tennessee. While the severe weather threat going into the event was fairly low, we still ended up with numerous damage reports, mainly due to strong winds interacting with saturated ground conditions.
Let’s recap what happened Thursday, then look ahead to a much calmer and warmer stretch of weather as we approach Christmas.
Thursday Afternoon Rain and Storm Update
Rain and gusty winds continue to overspread Southern Middle Tennessee this afternoon as a cold front slowly works east across the region. This system has been on our radar for several days, and while the overall severe weather threat remains VERY low, the Storm Prediction Center has reintroduced a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for parts of the area through this evening… Before you bring out your pitchforks at me, let’s walk through what’s happening, what has changed, and what you should actually expect.
An Update on Thursday’s Storm Potential…
It’s been a mostly cloudy and mild day across Southern Middle Tennessee so far, with temperatures sitting in the 50s and only a few spotty sprinkles showing up here and there. That light activity is tied to a weak disturbance passing overhead today, but it’s really just a placeholder for the main weather system we’re tracking for Thursday.
Storms Possible Thursday, But Severe Threat Remains Low
As we head toward the middle of the week, temperatures across Southern Middle Tennessee will continue to trend warmer. Highs will climb into the 50s and lower 60s Wednesday and Thursday, which is well above average for mid-December. That warmth, however, comes with our next widespread rain-maker and a low-end storm threat on Thursday.
Midweek Rain Returns, But an Overall Mild Week Is in Store
It was a downright cold start across Southern Middle Tennessee this morning... Several locations dipped into the low 10s, and a few colder, rural spots were in the single digits. This marks one of the colder mornings we’ve seen recently and serves as a reminder that winter still has a firm grip on our overnight temperatures. Despite the cold start, sunshine is doing its job today. With mostly clear skies and lighter winds, temperatures are rebounding nicely through the afternoon. Highs will climb into the 40s, which may not sound warm on paper, but after a morning like today, it will feel noticeably better.