If it feels like we've been talking about rain for the past week... it's because we have.

Over the past seven days, nearly everyone across Southern Middle Tennessee has picked up between 2 and 4 inches of rainfall, with a few communities receiving even more. While the almost daily showers and thunderstorms have certainly put a damper on some outdoor plans, they've also delivered some much-needed rainfall to an area that has spent much of the past year running well below average.

After an active stretch of weather over the past week, we're finally beginning to see signs that our weather pattern is slowly changing. The next couple of days will still feature scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. However, by the middle and latter part of the week, rain chances should begin decreasing as the stubborn upper-level disturbance responsible for our recent wet weather finally pulls away.

Saturday has become the day we're watching most closely this weekend. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded much of Middle Tennessee to a Slight Risk (Level 2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms. While this is still considered a relatively low-end severe weather event, it's a step above the Marginal Risk we've been dealing with recently and indicates scattered severe storms are possible.

After several days of ordinary summertime pop-up thunderstorms, we're transitioning into a weather pattern that's a little more concerning: northwest flow.

During the summer, a large dome of high pressure often parks itself across the southern United States. Air circulates clockwise around that high, placing Tennessee beneath northwesterly winds several miles above the ground. Those upper-level winds act like a conveyor belt, carrying clusters of thunderstorms that develop across the Midwest southeastward into the Tennessee Valley.

If you've looked at the radar the past several afternoons, you've probably noticed something frustrating. One town picks up a soaking rain while another community just five or ten miles away doesn't see a single drop.

That's simply the nature of summertime weather, and it's exactly the pattern we'll remain in over the next several days.

After the prolonged stretch of dangerous heat last week, Southern Middle Tennessee is finally settling into a much more typical July weather pattern. While it's still going to be warm and humid, temperatures have backed off closer to seasonal averages, and daily afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances will become the norm over the next seven days.

Happy Birthday, America! The Fourth of July is finally here, and after one of the hottest stretches we've experienced in several years, I have some encouraging news. While the heat certainly isn't going away, we're finally beginning to see the weather pattern change ever so slightly. Temperatures will ease down a couple of degrees, and while scattered thunderstorms remain in the forecast, this does not look like an all-day washout.

That said, there are still a few weather concerns you'll want to keep in mind before heading out to parades, cookouts, the lake, or your favorite fireworks show.

We've spent the past week talking almost exclusively about dangerous heat, heat indices over 110 degrees, and the daily chance for a few strong afternoon thunderstorms. Those remain the primary weather stories through the Independence Day weekend. But today, I wanted to highlight something we don't get to talk about very often. For many of us, the drought is officially over!

After several days of talking almost exclusively about the dangerous heat, today finally gives us something else to watch. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded southern portions of our coverage area to a SLIGHT RISK (Level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, while the remainder of Southern Middle Tennessee remains under a MARGINAL RISK (Level 1 of 5). This is not a widespread, high-end severe weather setup like we often see during the spring. Instead, this is a classic summertime pattern where only a few storms become severe—but the ones that do can become intense in a hurry.

With Independence Day just a few days away, I've been getting one question more than any other: "What's the weather going to be like on the Fourth?"

The good news is that we're finally getting close enough for forecast confidence to improve. While there are still a few details to fine-tune, the overall weather pattern is becoming much clearer. Before we get there, though, we have to get through one of the hottest stretches of weather we've seen in over a year.

If you've lived in Southern Middle Tennessee for very long, you've probably noticed something that can seem a little odd during active weather. A Severe Thunderstorm Warning may include Bedford County, but stop right at the Lincoln County line. A Heat Advisory may cover Coffee County but not Franklin County. Sometimes a Flood Watch appears to end almost perfectly along a county boundary, even though the rain clearly doesn't know where one county ends and another begins.

If you've been following my forecasts over the past couple of days, you've probably noticed that I've been using the word "complicated" quite a bit when talking about Saturday's weather.

There's a good reason for that.

Confidence is high that showers and thunderstorms will develop somewhere across Middle Tennessee this weekend. The challenge isn't determining if storms will form—it's figuring out where they'll form. And in a summertime weather pattern like this, a shift of only 25 to 50 miles can completely change who sees heavy rain, who experiences stronger storms, and who stays mostly dry.

After several days of quiet weather, Southern Middle Tennessee is beginning the transition back into a more active summertime pattern. Fortunately, we're not looking at a washout, but you'll want to keep an eye on the forecast over the next few days as scattered showers and thunderstorms make a return. The bigger weather story, however, may not be the rain at all. Dangerous heat is beginning to take shape for early next week.

After another beautiful day across Southern Middle Tennessee, our weather pattern is about to begin a gradual transition back toward a more typical late-June setup. That means two things: increasing rain chances and increasing heat.

After what feels like weeks of talking about severe weather risks, heavy rainfall, flooding concerns, tropical moisture, cold fronts, and popup thunderstorms, Southern Middle Tennessee is finally getting a chance to catch its breath. In fact, today and Wednesday may end up being two of the nicest weather days we've seen all month.

If you've stepped outside today, you've probably noticed something feels... different. After several days of tropical moisture, muggy afternoons, and rounds of thunderstorms, Southern Middle Tennessee is finally getting a well-deserved break. Unfortunately, the atmosphere isn't quite ready to settle down for good.

It's been a busy weather day across Southern Middle Tennessee, but thankfully, some of the concern from earlier forecasts has begun to ease. Showers and thunderstorms have blossomed across the region this afternoon as tropical moisture associated with the remnants of Arthur interacts with an approaching cold front. The atmosphere remains loaded with moisture, and scattered heavy downpours will continue to be possible through the evening hours.

Well, the comfortable weather was nice while it lasted. Over the past few days, Southern Middle Tennessee has enjoyed lower humidity, cool nights, and pleasant afternoons. Unfortunately, that's quickly becoming a distant memory as Gulf moisture surges back into the region.

Today's weather is really the transition day. Tomorrow is when things get interesting. If you've got outdoor plans this week, today is by far your best opportunity to enjoy them before a much more active weather pattern settles in for Thursday and early Friday.

Whenever a tropical system develops in the Gulf, one of the first questions I get is simple: "Is it coming here?"

The short answer with Arthur is no. The center of the storm is expected to stay well to our south as it moves inland along the Gulf Coast and eventually weakens. Southern Middle Tennessee won't experience tropical storm conditions, storm surge, or anything close to what some on the Gulf Coast will see. But that doesn't mean Arthur won't impact our weather.

After the active weather we've dealt with over the past couple of weeks, Southern Middle Tennessee is finally getting a bit of a breather. Notice I said "breather" and not "dry spell."