We’ve caught a brief break in the action this Friday across Southern Middle Tennessee. Aside from a few passing high clouds, sunshine is doing its job and temperatures are responding nicely. Many locations will finish the afternoon with temperatures near normal for this time of year, with highs feeling downright comfortable compared to what we’ve been dealing with lately.

Thursday has turned out calm and comfortable across Southern Middle Tennessee. We’ve enjoyed some sunshine today, although clouds are gradually increasing ahead of a weak clipper system sliding by to our north in Kentucky. Winds are lighter than yesterday, and Friday will warm up nicely with highs approaching 60 degrees. It’s a welcome break in what has been a chilly stretch — but it won’t last long. A big-time cold snap is coming.

Today has been a typical early-December day — patches of sun, some stubborn clouds, and just enough wind to make the 40s / 50s feel noticeably colder than they look. Gusts have been topping out between 20 and 35 mph, which keeps the chill factor elevated even in the middle of the day.

When the weather pattern quiets down, it gives us a perfect chance to talk about something we’ve been seeing a lot of lately in Southern Middle Tennessee — fog. It’s been showing up in valleys, along the Plateau, and even during broad daylight on some mornings.

Today’s weather lesson uses four graphics to walk you through how fog forms, why it’s so common this time of year, and what makes freezing fog different.

Late November and early December have really settled into a pattern: cloudy, chilly, hazy, and damp. We had a weak little system roll through late Sunday night that brought scattered light showers, but rainfall totals were unimpressive – generally around a tenth of an inch or less. Today is more of the same. Clouds have been stubborn to break, and the latest NWS forecast discussion notes a strong inversion overhead (warmer, dry air sitting above colder, humid air near the surface). That traps the stratus deck in place and keeps temperatures chilly. Most of us will barely make it out of the 30s this afternoon.

Tonight, lows slip back into the 20s. If clouds clear even partially, freezing fog could develop thanks to saturated ground, high near-surface moisture, and calm winds. It’s not a guarantee, but something to keep in mind for the Tuesday morning commute.

Normally I ease into these blogs, talk about the weather so far today, maybe throw in a fun stat — but not today. Let’s not cut corners: What is the deal with tonight? Rain is already pushing into Southern Middle Tennessee as we move through the afternoon, and this is all tied to a low-impact winter system sliding across Tennessee, southern Kentucky, Virginia, and eventually into the Carolinas. And while “winter system” sounds dramatic, the reality is that this is a borderline event, and even the places that do see wintry weather won’t see major impacts.

We’re stuck under a very stubborn cloud deck across Southern Middle Tennessee today. As of 10 AM, most of us are still in the 30s, and some locations may never make it out of the upper 30s at all. Unfortunately, these clouds are expected to hang tough through the day.

So far, it has been a quiet but very cold Tuesday across Southern Middle Tennessee. Our rain system cleared early this morning, leaving behind widespread totals of one half inch to one inch. Spring Hill was the big winner, picking up just under an inch along the Maury–Williamson County line. These totals aligned nicely with the forecast. Since the rain and its associated cold front moved out, temperatures have struggled all day. Most of us are stuck in the low to mid 30s under thick cloud cover, meaning we’re not getting any help from the sun. Wind chill values remain in the mid 20s, making it feel even colder.

Today marks the first day of meteorological winter, and winter is certainly making her presence known. Lows were in the 20s this morning, and as of mid-afternoon, temperatures are still stuck in the low 40s—perfect “stay inside and cuddle up” weather. A light south breeze late today will help moderate temps just enough before our next round of rainfall moves in this evening

It’s been a very chilly end to the week across Southern Middle Tennessee. Highs on Thanksgiving only reached the mid to upper 40s, and today we’re struggling to climb out of the mid 40s — a solid 10–15 degrees below average for late November. Tonight brings yet another widespread hard freeze, with lows dipping well into the 20s. We’ll finally start a small warming trend on Saturday. Highs return to the 50s as southerly winds bring in Gulf moisture and increasing cloud cover through the day.

Two weather systems will impact us over the next few days:
System #1 Saturday night into Sunday morning, and
System #2 Monday night into Tuesday, which has some early-season winter-weather buzz around it. Let’s break them down.

Our much-anticipated storm system moved through early this morning and brought a healthy round of rainfall to Southern Middle Tennessee. Most locations picked up ½ to 1 inch, which matched the forecast nicely. As of the time of this blog post, light to moderate rain is still falling across parts of Franklin and Grundy Counties, so a few spots in our southeast may finish slightly above an inch before everything fully tapers off.

Today’s blog focuses on the quieting weather pattern ahead, what to expect for Thanksgiving, and the return of our next widespread rainmaker.

It’s been dry, breezy, and unseasonably warm across Southern Tennessee this Monday, with highs near 70 degrees. This is well above the average for late November. While we aren’t in record territory today, the warmth won’t last long, as our next widespread rainmaker is already approaching from the west.

Today’s blog will focus entirely on the next 48 hours. If you’re looking for a detailed Thanksgiving forecast (which are looking fantastic, by the way), hang tight — I’ll have that in tomorrow’s blog. Clouds will continue to increase through the afternoon, and I expect light showers to begin overspreading the region near and after sunset. Here’s a look at radar as of the time of this post, showing activity not far to our west in Western Tennessee.

Today’s blog is running just a little behind schedule, but for good reason! I wanted to give time for the afternoon suite of short-range weather models to finish running so we could have the freshest possible data. Now that we have it, here’s what you can expect:

I mentioned this on social media yesterday, but I wanted to share it again here for those who follow the blog but not my other platforms. (And if you aren’t following yet, you can find all my social links right here)!

Our first (and lighter) storm system of the week brought scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder late last night and early this morning. Rainfall totals varied quite a bit across the area, with the heaviest amounts falling along a thin northwest-to-southeast corridor from Santa Fe → Central Marshall County → Southern Bedford County → Lynchburg → Tullahoma → Winchester → Sewanee. Some communities picked up close to an inch, while others, such as Manchester and Bell Buckle, barely saw measurable rainfall. Below is a look at radar-estimated rainfall over the past 24 hours.

A warm front (the same one I mentioned in yesterday’s blog) pushed through the region late last night. Because of this, our actual “overnight low” occurred around 8 PM last night, and temperatures steadily climbed afterward as southerly winds pulled warmer air into the area. For reference, our normal overnight lows occur around sunrise.

As of this afternoon, most of Southern Middle Tennessee is sitting in the low to mid-70s, which is 10 to 15 degrees above average for mid-November. Clouds will increase through the evening ahead of our next weather-maker tonight.

It was a chilly start to the morning across Southern Middle Tennessee, with many communities dipping below freezing once again. Afternoon highs will reach the mid-60s, but today will likely be our last day in the 60s until the weekend. A warm front will lift through the region early Tuesday, shifting our winds out of the south and pulling warmer, more humid air into the area. This will set the stage for multiple rounds of showers and storms through the next 7 days.

Today’s blog breaks down the two main rain chances:

1. Tuesday night

2. Friday

Let’s dive into the details.

Above-average temperatures and mostly sunny skies will continue to dominate the forecast this weekend. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will climb into the low to mid-70s, which is a solid 10–15 degrees above normal for mid-November. A weak cold front will slip through Saturday night, bringing Increasing clouds (mainly overnight) and Gusty winds Saturday and Sunday (25–30 MPH gusts). It’s not a bad idea to secure lightweight outdoor items. before bed tonight. Because this is a very weak front, significant rainfall is not expected. A brief patch of drizzle will be possible.

If you're not in a “learning mood” this afternoon, feel free to stop here — because we’re about to look under the hood of next week’s weather pattern.

We’re sitting in the mid to upper 60s across Southern Middle Tennessee this Thursday — about 5 to 8 degrees above average for this time of year. High pressure is firmly in control of our local weather pattern, and that will continue straight through the weekend. Highs on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday will climb into the 70s, which is 10 to 15 degrees above normal. It’s pretty wild to think we had highs in the 30s on Monday… and now we’re talking about the 70s. Classic Tennessee weather for Fall.

I think today’s blog title pretty much sums up the weather over the next few days… UP AND UP in the temperature department! If you remember yesterday’s blog, I mentioned we had a good shot at breaking records for both record low maximum temperatures on Monday and record low temperatures this morning. Well, that definitely happened — and then some.