Southern Middle Tennessee is settling into a brief stretch of quieter weather today, but the atmosphere is far from finished with us. After yesterday’s record-setting warmth, a cooler and drier pattern takes hold through the end of the workweek. Attention then turns to the weekend, when a more organized storm system brings a high likelihood of widespread rainfall across the region. While flooding is not expected at this time, this system will mark a clear shift back toward a wetter pattern.

Southern Middle Tennessee is enjoying one more unseasonably warm day, but changes are already lining up as we head into tonight and the rest of the week. While today feels more like late March than early February, a cold front moving in this evening will bring a round of light rain, followed by cooler (though not dramatically colder) and drier conditions for the middle of the week. The bigger story unfolds after that, as the pattern turns more active heading into the weekend with the potential for heavier rainfall.

Southern Middle Tennessee is firmly in a springlike pattern as we head into the start of the workweek, with unusually warm temperatures today and Tuesday before a return to rain and a modest cool-down midweek. While winter has made plenty of appearances over the past several weeks, the atmosphere is now taking a very different turn, and the next few days will feel far more like late March than early February.

Southern Middle Tennessee is wrapping up another week of winter variability, but the overall pattern is beginning to turn a corner. While we do have one more weak front sliding through today and a cooler, breezy Saturday ahead, the bigger story is the increasingly confident warm-up that unfolds late this weekend and continues into next week. By early next week, temperatures will feel far more like early spring than early February.

Today’s Weather Blog is a little different than usual. Today, February 5th, is National Weatherperson’s Day. This is a time set aside to recognize meteorologists and weather communicators, but instead of focusing on myself or the title, I want to use today to say thank you.

Southern Middle Tennessee is settling into a brief but stubborn stretch of colder, gray weather today and Thursday as we sit on the backside of yesterday’s cold frontal passage. While this is not an impactful winter weather setup, lingering moisture and cold air aloft will keep conditions feeling raw for another 24 to 36 hours before a meaningful and sustained warm-up arrives heading into the weekend and early next week.

Southern Middle Tennessee is transitioning into a much quieter and more favorable weather pattern, but not before one final round of rain moves through the region this afternoon and evening. This system is not particularly strong, nor is it dangerous. Still, it does serve as a clear dividing line between today’s unsettled weather and a stretch of colder, dry conditions midweek, followed by a notable warm-up as we head toward the end of the week and early next week.

Southern Middle Tennessee is finally beginning to ease out of the harsh Arctic pattern that dominated much of late January, but winter is not finished with us just yet. While the most extreme cold has retreated for now, the overall pattern remains active enough to bring a round of widespread rain on Tuesday, followed by another cool-down midweek and a continuation of cold mornings paired with milder afternoons.

Southern Middle Tennessee is now firmly entering the heart of an Arctic outbreak, and while light snow showers and flurries will remain part of the forecast through Saturday, they are not the primary concern. This is not shaping up to be a high-impact snowfall event for our region. Instead, the dominant and most dangerous hazard through the weekend will be the intensity and duration of the cold air settling in behind the snow.

Southern Middle Tennessee remains entrenched in a harsh winter pattern, and as we move toward the end of the work week, the forecast focus is becoming increasingly clear: this weekend’s primary hazard will be dangerous cold, not snowfall. While some light snow or flurries remain possible Friday into Saturday, impacts from any precipitation should remain fairly minor. The cold, however, will not be.

Southern Middle Tennessee remains firmly locked in a deep winter pattern, and the focus of this forecast is shifting away from storm recovery and fully into cold-weather hazards. While last weekend’s winter storm is now behind us, the atmosphere has not relaxed. In fact, the large-scale pattern aloft is becoming even more supportive of reinforcing Arctic air, and that will drive some of the coldest temperatures we have experienced so far this winter as we head into the upcoming weekend.

Southern Middle Tennessee remains firmly locked in a winter pattern following last week’s storm, and while the active precipitation has ended, the impacts have not. The weather story now shifts into a prolonged post-storm phase defined by persistent cold, slow melting, and repeated nighttime refreezing. This is often the most deceptive part of winter events around here, because conditions may look improved during the afternoon, only to quietly deteriorate again after sunset.

I’m a little late on the weather blog today — but I promise I’m here and alive. This is going to be a QUICK RUNDOWN blog. Everything I expect over the next 36–48 hours, all in one place, written in a way that’s easy to follow and easy to reference as this storm unfolds.

Southern Middle Tennessee is now within the high-confidence zone for a significant winter storm this weekend. After several days of watching trends and refining the pattern, we’ve reached the point where confidence is no longer in whether winter weather occurs but rather how it unfolds and where the greatest impacts ultimately set up.

If you’ve lived in Tennessee long enough, you know winter storms rarely arrive cleanly. They don’t usually give us textbook snow setups. They bend. They wobble. They introduce last-minute complications. That’s exactly what we’re watching unfold now. Confidence continues to increase that a major winter storm will impact parts of the South this weekend. That part of the forecast is becoming solid. What is becoming less solid is how that storm behaves once it reaches Tennessee.

Southern Middle Tennessee remains firmly embedded in a cold-season pattern, but the focus is now shifting from reinforcing cold air to an increasingly organized winter storm threat late this week into the weekend.

While a weak system will bring scattered rain showers Wednesday into Wednesday night, confidence is growing that a much more impactful system will affect parts of the South Friday through Sunday. Forecast guidance from the National Weather Service, the Weather Prediction Center, and multiple ensemble systems is converging on a classic southern-stream winter storm setup — one capable of producing widespread snow and ice across the southern tier of the United States.

Southern Middle Tennessee is settling into its coldest stretch of the winter so far, and the atmospheric pattern responsible is only becoming more firmly established. While the short-term forecast focuses on reinforcing cold air and generally quiet conditions over the next couple of days, attention is increasingly shifting toward a potential winter weather system late this week into the weekend. Confidence is growing that the large-scale setup will support winter weather somewhere across the southern United States from Friday through Sunday. What remains uncertain (and what we’ll be refining throughout the week) is how that system ultimately impacts Southern Middle Tennessee.

Southern Middle Tennessee remains locked in a winter pattern, and while today has brought a modest break from the bitter cold, that break is short-lived. A weak disturbance is approaching the region this afternoon and evening, bringing another round of light precipitation. The main questions tonight revolve around timing, how much moisture is available, and whether a brief rain-to-snow mix develops before the system exits.

Light flurries and spotty snow showers that moved across parts of Southern Middle Tennessee this morning have largely come to an end. These developed as very cold air poured in behind yesterday’s cold front and passed over a shallow layer of lingering low-level moisture. Atmospheric moisture is extremely limited today, which is why no accumulation was seen locally and overall impacts have remained low. Outside of the Cumberland Plateau, no additional wintry precipitation is expected. Even on the Plateau, any minor dustings that occurred earlier should remain brief and localized.

Southern Middle Tennessee’s midweek pattern change is now underway. After several days of tracking an approaching cold front and a possible rain-to-snow transition, today marks the execution phase of that forecast. Light rain is moving through the region this afternoon, colder air is closing in from the northwest, and by this evening we’ll begin the handoff from moisture to cold. Flurries will fly for many, but accumulating snow should remain confined to the Cumberland Plateau.