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Over the next several days, we're launching a new mini-series here on the STN Weather Blog called Weather Folklore. For generations, people have looked to nature for clues about what the weather might do next. From woolly worms and persimmon seeds to halos around the moon and red sunsets, nearly every community has its own collection of weather sayings that have been passed down through the years.

Some of these old beliefs actually contain a surprising amount of scientific truth. Others are little more than coincidence that have stood the test of time because they're fun to talk about. In each edition of this series, we'll take one popular piece of weather folklore, explain where it came from, why people believed it, and then compare it to what modern meteorology tells us today. We'll also finish each blog with a quick look at the forecast for Southern Middle Tennessee.

Today's folklore is one you've probably heard before... "For every foggy morning in August, there will be a snow that winter." If you've lived in Tennessee for very long, you've probably heard someone keeping count of foggy mornings during August. Some versions of the saying even claim that a thick fog means a heavy snow, while a light fog means only a light snowfall. But where did that idea come from?

Where Did The Saying Come From?

Like many pieces of weather folklore, nobody knows exactly who first said it. The belief has been documented throughout Appalachia and much of the southeastern United States for well over a century. Before forecasts were available on television, radio, smartphones, or even newspapers, people relied on experience and observation to help them anticipate the seasons.

If they noticed what seemed to be a recurring pattern, it often became local wisdom and was passed from one generation to the next. August fog eventually found its place alongside other familiar folklore involving woolly worms, squirrel nests, persimmon seeds, and the Farmer's Almanac. Whether those signs actually predicted the weather was another question entirely.

Why People Believed It

At first glance, the saying actually sounds fairly reasonable. August is typically one of our most humid months of the year. Clear nights, calm winds, and abundant moisture often allow temperatures near the ground to cool enough for fog to develop around sunrise. Since both fog and snow involve moisture, it's understandable why earlier generations may have assumed the two were somehow connected. If August seemed especially foggy, perhaps that meant the atmosphere was "setting up" for a snowy winter.

The problem is that weather doesn't have a memory that works that way. The conditions that produce fog on an August morning are controlled by what happens over the course of a single night. Winter snowfall, on the other hand, depends on large-scale weather patterns that won't even develop for another four or five months.

What Does Science Say?

Modern climatology has found no meaningful relationship between the number of foggy mornings in August and the amount of snow that falls during the following winter. Every now and then, the saying appears to work. Other years, it misses completely.

That's exactly what you'd expect when two unrelated events occasionally happen to line up by coincidence. There's another challenge as well: nobody has ever agreed on exactly how to count it. Does patchy valley fog count? Does mist count? What qualifies as a "snow?" A few flurries? A dusting? A measurable snowfall? Without consistent definitions, it's easy to remember the years when the saying seemed accurate while forgetting all the years when it wasn't. Meteorologists refer to this as confirmation bias—our tendency to remember the successes and overlook the failures.

The STN Weather Verdict

Scientific Rating: ❌ Mostly Myth

While this is one of Tennessee's best-known weather sayings, there simply isn't any scientific evidence that August fog can predict how snowy the upcoming winter will be. That certainly doesn't mean the tradition isn't worth keeping alive.

Weather folklore is an important part of our region's history. It offers a fascinating glimpse into how previous generations tried to understand the atmosphere long before weather satellites, Doppler radar, and computer forecast models existed. So if you find yourself counting foggy mornings this month, you're participating in a tradition that's been around for generations—even if it probably won't tell us much about January.

This Week's Forecast

Speaking of fog, we'll continue to have favorable conditions for patchy morning fog through the remainder of the week, especially across the southeastern half of Southern Middle Tennessee where recent rainfall has left plenty of moisture near the ground. Otherwise, the forecast remains fairly quiet. Through Thursday, the best chance for scattered afternoon showers and a few thunderstorms will stay along and east of Interstate 65 as a stubborn upper-level low slowly weakens over the Appalachians. Many locations farther west may stay dry altogether.

By the weekend, shower and thunderstorm chances become more widespread across the entire area as weak disturbances move around a strengthening Bermuda High. Severe weather isn't expected, but any storms that develop will be capable of producing heavy rainfall. Temperatures will also warm back into the lower 90s, with afternoon heat index values approaching 100° by Saturday and Sunday.

The Bottom Line 🧾

🌫️ Folklore: "For every foggy morning in August, there will be a snow that winter."
📜 Origin: Passed down through Appalachia and the Southeast for generations as a way to predict the upcoming winter.
🔬 Science: There is no proven connection between August fog and winter snowfall.
❌ STN Weather Rating:Mostly Myth
🌦️ Forecast: Scattered afternoon showers remain focused mainly along and east of Interstate 65 through Thursday before rain chances become more widespread this weekend. Highs will warm back into the lower 90s with heat index values nearing 100° by the weekend.
📰 Reminder: The Southern Tennessee Weather Blog, presented by Heritage South Community Credit Union, is updated Monday through Friday with fresh, locally tailored forecasts you can trust.

Weather Folklore: August Fog and Winter Snow