soggy start to the week ahead!
It’s been a beautiful week so far across southern Middle Tennessee, with mostly sunny skies and even a touch of early-season frost in a few spots. Our “winners” of the lowest-temperature trophy this morning go to Chapel Hill and Lewisburg, both bottoming out around 34°. For many of us, that was the first real taste of winter chill this season and likely the last for at least the next week as temperatures slowly rebound and clouds increase.
Shifting Gears: Clouds on the Way 🌤️
You may have noticed thin, wispy high clouds drifting in today. That’s our first sign of change. These clouds are tied to an approaching system that will slowly build moisture across the region this weekend. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies Saturday, but conditions should remain dry through most (if not all) of the day.
Winds will stay light, and highs will climb into the mid to upper 60s, making Saturday another great day to enjoy any outdoor plans before the pattern turns wetter.
Sunday: Showers Begin to Creep In 🌧️
By early Sunday morning, some isolated showers could sneak into the region, especially for areas west of I-65. Rain chances look to hover around 20% in the morning, meaning most of us will stay dry early.
Through the afternoon and evening, moisture levels rise significantly as a broad upper-level trough digs into the Mississippi River Valley. Expect showers to become more widespread after lunchtime and into the night. A few rumbles of thunder are possible, but the overall setup looks non-severe, with no strong wind or tornado concerns expected.
STNWX In-House Computer Model showing scattered showers along and west of I-65 early Sunday.
Sunday Night into Monday Morning: Widespread, Beneficial Rain 🌦️
This will be the main round of rainfall for the entire system. Overnight Sunday into early Monday, a steady band of rain will move through the region. This looks like a good, soaking rain, with widespread totals between 1 and 2 inches possible by Monday morning.
This is the kind of rainfall we’ve needed… Steady, widespread, and beneficial for area farms, streams, and soil moisture.
By mid-morning Monday, the bulk of the rain will move off to our east, leaving behind cloudy skies and a few lingering sprinkles through the afternoon.
STNWX In-House Computer Model showing widespread showers across the entire area by early Monday morning.
Midweek: A Secondary Low & a Taste of November Chill 🌀
Even after the main system exits, another secondary low-pressure area will form across Missouri and Kentucky by Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. This will keep scattered showers in our forecast (around 40% coverage) and increase cloud cover once again.
With this low spinning just north of us, cold air aloft will help drop daytime highs into the 50s by midweek, which is a noticeable cool-down compared to the mild weather we’ve enjoyed lately.
And while we won’t see any wintry precipitation locally, the Great Smoky Mountains could experience their first flakes of snow of the season next week! ❄️
STNWX In-House Computer Model showing temperatures in the low 50s for highs on Wednesday.
Halloween Forecast: Spook-tacular Conditions Ahead 👻
The good news? By Thursday (Halloween Day), that pesky low should finally move east, allowing skies to clear out. Expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with afternoon highs in the low- to mid-60s. Evening temperatures should be comfortable in the 50s — perfect for trick-or-treating or fall festivals across southern Tennessee.
No rain, no storms, just crisp and calm fall air to end the month on a great note.
The Bottom Line 🧾
Dry through Saturday with increasing clouds
Showers/storms develop Sunday → widespread rain overnight into Monday morning
1–2 inches of beneficial rainfall expected
More scattered rain Tuesday–Wednesday with highs in the 50s
Clear and mild Halloween in the 60s
I’ll continue refining the timing as new data comes in, but the pattern looks set for a soggy start to the new week, followed by a cool and comfortable Halloween to close out October.
📰 Reminder:
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